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Currently, economists and market experts are deeply concerned: under the Trump administration's escalating "tariff chaos," the US economy may experience a "Trump recession." The latest warning comes from Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi. On Wednesday, he stated that as the market reacts to President Trump's tariff agenda, the risk of an economic recession is "alarmingly high." In a recent interview, he said, "The risk of a recession is alarmingly high and rising. I don't think it's 50% yet, but it really depends on the president and what he does." Zandi noted that if Trump continues to push his tariff plan, including "reciprocal tariffs" on other countries, and these tariffs last for three to five months, it would be enough to "push the economy into a recession." Recently, Trump has repeatedly emphasized imposing "reciprocal tariffs" on other countries in response to import taxes and other trade barriers on American goods. These tariffs are set to take effect on April 2, with agricultural tariffs also taking effect on the same day. Last month, Trump signed a memorandum requiring relevant departments to determine "reciprocal tariffs" with each foreign trading partner. Zandi remarked, "It would be a very strange recession, right? I mean, it's a designed recession. At the beginning of this year, the US economy was booming, exceptionally strong, and we were driving the recovery, thanks to policy." "I just don't think this is the direction we need to go," he added. The economist also expressed doubt that Trump and his administration would ultimately say "enough" on the issue of tariffs. Trump previously acknowledged that tariffs could cause "a little disruption" but were acceptable. "I'm not saying this with confidence, but the risk of a recession is indeed very high," he said. However, both Trump and US Commerce Secretary Lutnick are less worried about an economic recession. Trump previously stated that he did not expect the US to fall into a recession. He said, "I don't see it at all. I think the country will prosper." Trump also added that the market "goes up and down. But you know, we have to rebuild our country." Lutnick's statements, however, have been inconsistent. He first clearly stated that the US would never experience a recession, saying Americans "absolutely should not" prepare for one. Later, he said that even if the economy eventually fell into a recession, President Trump's tariff policies would still be worth it. US Treasury Secretary Benton has not ruled out the possibility of a recession either. A few days ago, he said, "Nothing is guaranteed. For example, who could have predicted the pandemic, right? But the government is formulating 'strong policies' that may require some adjustments."
[Reprinted with permission - SMM] Is the US Heading for a "Trump Recession"? Moody's Chief: The Risk Is High and Rising! https://news.smm.cn/news/103237502