【How Will Yangshan Copper Premiums Change in December After Fluctuating in November?】As the year-end approaches, the trading atmosphere in the USD copper market has weakened. How did the market actually perform in November? How will it change in December? The specific situation is as follows...
As the year-end approaches, the trading atmosphere in the USD copper market has weakened. How did the market actually perform in November? How will it change in December? The specific situation is as follows.
NovemberYangshan copper premiumsfirst declined and then rebounded, with the market performing well in the middle and late months. Entering November, many USD copper market traders were close to meeting their import volume requirements, and the subsidy quotas in some regions were already full, leading to a decline in traders' purchasing enthusiasm. Coupled with copper prices fluctuating at highs, downstream purchasing demand was weak, and the USD copper market transactions were sluggish. However, in mid-November, copper prices began to fall, the SHFE/LME price ratio quickly improved, and the USD copper market transactions warmed up, leading to a rebound in Yangshan copper premiums. Subsequently, as the export tax rebate forcopper semiswas set to be canceled starting in December, many processing enterprises rushed to fulfill export orders, resulting in high demand for near-port B/L and warehouse warrants. Traders took this opportunity to ship large quantities, and market transactions continued to improve.
Looking ahead to December, SMM expects that Yangshan copper premiums will find it difficult to maintain the continuous rebound trend seen in November. From the demand side, the rush to fulfill export orders has ended. Although copper prices remain relatively low, processing enterprises' orders are stable, and there is no need for large-scalecopper cathodepurchases. Additionally, traders indicate that as the year-end approaches, to avoid holding inventory into the new year, daily "brick-moving" trade volumes will be significantly reduced, except to meet downstream customer procurement needs. From the arrivals side, according to SMM, there will be a large influx of supplies from South America and Japan and South Korea in December, leading to a high overall volume of imported copper arrivals. Therefore, the USD copper market in December is expected to exhibit a supply far exceeding demand, which is expected to exert significant pressure on Yangshan copper premiums.
